March Madness Preview: A Look at the NCAA Tourney Field
This March Madness preview breaks down potential first round upsets, which regions are strongest and weakest, who has the easiest path to the Final Four, who performed well in their respective conference tournaments and who didn't, teams left out of the Big Dance who deserve to be in, and the teams who have a legitimate chance to win it all. Let's get right to it.
March Madness Preview - 10 potential first round upsets
St. Joseph's(11) over Oklahoma(6) - I am actually picking this upset in my bracket. St. Joe's made it to the A10 tournament final and beat Xavier 2 times in the last 2 weeks. Oklahoma was not impressive in either of their Big 12 tournament games scoring a combined 93 points(54 and 49).
Villanova(12) over Clemson(5) - I am not picking this upset, but it's an intriguing Big East vs ACC matchup that could be a great
March Madness Preview - 10 potential first round upsets
St. Joseph's(11) over Oklahoma(6) - I am actually picking this upset in my bracket. St. Joe's made it to the A10 tournament final and beat Xavier 2 times in the last 2 weeks. Oklahoma was not impressive in either of their Big 12 tournament games scoring a combined 93 points(54 and 49).
Villanova(12) over Clemson(5) - I am not picking this upset, but it's an intriguing Big East vs ACC matchup that could be a great
game. Clemson made a solid in the ACC tourney, but what happens when they face a tough Big East opponent? I'm sticking with the Tigers as they beat Duke in the ACC tourney and then played North Carolina tough for the 3rd time this year.
Kansas State(11) over USC(6) - I am not picking this upset, but it's two major conference teams meeting up in the first round. The only reason I think KSU has a chance is Michael Beasley. I'm rolling with 6th seeded USC as they beat UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona plus played Kansas and Memphis close. Kansas State has lost 6 of their last 9 games.
Davidson(10) over Gonzaga(7) - I am picking this upset in my bracket. I picked Gonzaga to win in the first round last year and got burned. I'm going to give Davidson and their 22-game win streak a shot. Wildcats over the Zags.
Temple(12) over Michigan State(5) - I am not picking this upset. MSU can struggle on offense at times and Temple is a good 3-point shooting team(plus they take a lot of 3's). Temple is the A10 tournament champions.
Kentucky(11) over Marquette(6) - I am not picking this upset. I'm taking Marquette in a tight game. I'm basing that on Marquette looking more impressive when I've watched them as opposed to the way Kentucky has looked. The Wildcats losing to Georgia helped sway my pick to Marquette in this one.
St. Mary's(10) over Miami Fla(7) - I am not picking this upset. I initially thought I'd take St. Mary's in this game but after comparing the scedules of the two teams I've decided to pick Miami who has beaten Duke, Clemson, and Mississippi State.
Western Kentucky(12) over Drake(5) - I am not picking this upset. There is upset potential here but I'm sticking with Drake since they're 28-4, beat Butler late in the season, and won the MVC regular season and tournament championships.
Baylor(11) over Purdue(6) - I am not picking this upset. Purdue has lost 3 of their last 6 games. Baylor has won just 5 of their last 13 games. I'm going with the Boilermakers as they beat Wisconsin twice on the year.
Georgia(14) over Xavier(3) - I am not picking this upset, but it's a scary game for the Musketeers. Georgia shocked the SEC and won the conference tournament. So now what? Will they keep the momentum going into the NCAA tourney?
March Madness Preview - Ranking the Regions Strongest to Weakest
There's a lot of talk about the East region being the toughest. I disagree based on the recent play of the 2 thru 4 seeds in the East. I'll get to that region in a moment, but first I want to cover the South which I feel is the strongest. In the South region bracket I look at some of the 1st round matchups and the potential 2nd round and Sweet 16 matchups and it's going to be a tough path to the Final Four for whoever comes out of the South. Memphis only has one loss(but they play in C-USA). Pitt was great in the Big East tourney and has won 7 of their last 8 games. Texas has played well all year including wins over UCLA, Tennessee, and Kansas. Stanford has been ranked in or near the top 10 of the major polls for quite some time.
I think the second strongest region is the Midwest. Kansas is the headline in this region but three years ago they got upset in the first round as a number 3 seed. Two years ago they got upset in the first round as a number 4 seed. Last season the Jayhawks lost in the Elite 8 to UCLA. This year Kansas is better and has the number 1 seed. Will this be the year the Jayhawks get back to the Final Four? They have a tough road with potential matchups against UNLV, then Clemson or Vanderbilt, and then Georgetown, Wisconsin, or USC. I actually have Georgetown beating Kansas in the Elite 8 with Roy Hibbert being the difference maker.
I have the East as the third strongest region. As I mentioned above 2 thru 4 seeds Tennessee, Louisville, and Washington State have all been a little shaky heading into the Big Dance. I have Washington State bowing out in the second round to Notre Dame. I have Louisville beating Tennessee in the Sweet 16. One surprise in terms of seeding is Butler who, as a number 5 seed last year, made it to the Sweet 16 before bowing out in a relatively close game against eventual national champion Florida. This year the Bulldogs are 29-3 and ranked in the top 12 of the major polls and yet they end up as a 7 seed.
The West appears to be the weakest of the 4 regions. That means UCLA has the easiest path to the Final Four. In my mind the West's 2 thru 5 seeds are of a lesser caliber than the other three regions. Number 2 seed Duke has lost 4 of their last 9. The 3rd seed Xavier lost to St. Joseph's twice in the last 2 weeks. The 4th seed UConn Huskies have lost 3 of their last 6. The 5th seed Drake Bulldogs lost 3 of their last 6 MVC games before running the table in the MVC tourney.
March Madness Preview - 7 teams who increased their stock in their conference tournaments
Pittsburgh - Beat Cincy, Louisville, Marquette, and Georgetown in a 4 day span to win the Big East tourney.
Clemson - Beat Duke in the ACC semifinals before playing North Carolina tough for the 3rd time this year.
Georgia - They have to be on this list. The only way they could make the Big Dance was to win the SEC tourney.
Temple - Beat St. Joseph's for the 2nd time in a 2 week span to win the A10 tourney. Also has a 7 game win streak.
North Carolina - Beat Duke to win the regular season ACC title then proved again they are the best via the ACC tourney.
Kansas - Beat Texas to win the Big 12 tourney and to avenge a loss to the Longhorns earlier in the season.
UCLA - Added the Pac-10 tournament title to their regular season championship. 10 game win streak.
March Madness Preview - 7 teams who lost stock via their conference tournaments
Baylor - Lost to Colorado, the bottom seed, in the Big 12 tourney. Baylor has won just 5 of their last 13 games.
South Alabama - Lost to Middle Tennessee State for the 2nd time this year. Cost themselves a higher seed.
Purdue - Lost to Illinois, the 10 seed, in the Big Ten tourney. Purdue has lost of their last 6 games.
Indiana - Lost to Minnesota in the 1st round of the Big Ten tourney. Indiana has lost 3 of their last 4 games.
Gonzaga - Got beat by San Diego in the WCC title game. Now the Zags have to deal with Davidson(22 wins in a row).
Tennessee - Got beat by Arkansas in the SEC tourney. The Vols have struggled a bit since beating Memphis on Feb 23.
Duke - Lost to Clemson in the ACC semifinals and has now lost 4 of their last 9. Duke lives and dies with 3 pointers.
March Madness Preview - 10 teams left out who deserve a shot in the Big Dance
Arizona State - Beat Stanford, Xavier, USC, Oregon, and Arizona(twice).
VCU - Losing by 2 in the Colonial tourney negates a 15-3 regular season CAA record? Not in my book.
Virginia Tech - Fourth place in the ACC deserves an invite to the NCAA tournament. 5th place Miami Fla got in.
Syracuse - Beat Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, and St. Joseph's. 9-9 in the toughest conference.
Ohio State - Beat Purdue and Michigan State to finish the Big Ten regular season. 10-8 in the Big Ten.
Akron - Ten losses on the year but six of those were by 6 points or less. 23-10 overall record. 11-5 in the MAC.
Massachusetts - 3rd place in the A10 plus road victories at Syracuse and at Boston College. 21-10 overall.
Charlotte - Beat Clemson, Davidson, Southern Illinois, Wake Forest, Temple, St. Joseph's, and UMass. 20-13 overall.
Illinois State - MVC down a bit but 13-5 in the league is still solid. Beat Creighton and Southern Illinois twice each.
New Mexico - Overall record is 24-8. 3rd place in the MWC at 11-5. Won 8 of last 10 where they lost by 1 and by 2.
My point with this section of the article is to show that there are indeed high quality teams left out of the tournament each year. The 10 teams above are better than at least twelve of the teams who got in just by winning their conference tournament. These 10 teams are also as good as at least another 15 teams who either won their conference tourney to get in or were at-large selections. I had a longer list and had to pare it down to 10 teams. I believe the tournament should expand to 80 or 96 teams. It's time to make sure the best teams are in the tournament while still giving smaller conference teams a chance. Given the parity of today's college basketball landscape, there is no fair way to differentiate between the last dozen that get in and the last dozen that don't. More on this in another article.
March Madness Preview - 10 teams that could win it all
UCLA - March/February record is 12-1 including road victories at USC, at WSU, at Arizona, and at ASU. 31-3 overall. Beat Stanford for the Pac-10 tournament championship.
North Carolina - ACC regular season champions and ACC tournament champions. Has beaten Clemson(3 times), Duke, Davidson, and BYU. 32-2 overall record.
Texas - Has won 12 of their last 14 games including a win over Kansas and road victories against Baylor, Oklahoma, and KSU. 28-6 overall. Beat UCLA and Tennessee in non-conference play. Lost to kansas in the Big 12 tourney final.
Georgetown - Had won seven straight before losing to Pitt in the Big East tournament final. 27-5 overall. Has won at Marquette, at West Virginia, and home against Louisville. Beat UConn and Notre Dame earlier in the Big East schedule.
Kansas - The Jayhawk's three losses all came on the road in Big 12 play. The only team currently ranked in the AP or Coaches polls that Kansas beat was Texas and that came in the Big 12 tournament final. 31-3 overall record.
Memphis - Non-conference wins include Georgetown, at UConn, USC, Arizona, Oklahoma, and at Cincinnati. 33-1 overall. Lone loss was to Tennessee. Easily won the C-USA tournament.
Tennessee - Overall record is 29-4 including road wins at Memphis, Florida, Gonzaga, Xavier, and West Virginia. Got beat by Arkansas in the SEC tournament semifinals.
Pittsburgh - Has won 7 of their last 8 games including victories over Louisville, Marquette, and Georgetown to win the Big East tournament. 26-9 overall. Beat Duke and Georgetown earlier in the season as well.
Louisville - Had won 9 in a rwo before losing to Georgetown and Pitt. Victories include Georgetown, Notre Dame, at Kentucky, at Marquette, and at Pitt. 24-8 overall.
Duke - Has lost 4 of their last 9 games. 27-5 overall. Marquee wins include Wisconsin, Clemson, at Marquette, and at North Carolina. Lost to Clemson in the semifinals of the ACC tournament.
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Kansas State(11) over USC(6) - I am not picking this upset, but it's two major conference teams meeting up in the first round. The only reason I think KSU has a chance is Michael Beasley. I'm rolling with 6th seeded USC as they beat UCLA, Stanford, and Arizona plus played Kansas and Memphis close. Kansas State has lost 6 of their last 9 games.
Davidson(10) over Gonzaga(7) - I am picking this upset in my bracket. I picked Gonzaga to win in the first round last year and got burned. I'm going to give Davidson and their 22-game win streak a shot. Wildcats over the Zags.
Temple(12) over Michigan State(5) - I am not picking this upset. MSU can struggle on offense at times and Temple is a good 3-point shooting team(plus they take a lot of 3's). Temple is the A10 tournament champions.
Kentucky(11) over Marquette(6) - I am not picking this upset. I'm taking Marquette in a tight game. I'm basing that on Marquette looking more impressive when I've watched them as opposed to the way Kentucky has looked. The Wildcats losing to Georgia helped sway my pick to Marquette in this one.
St. Mary's(10) over Miami Fla(7) - I am not picking this upset. I initially thought I'd take St. Mary's in this game but after comparing the scedules of the two teams I've decided to pick Miami who has beaten Duke, Clemson, and Mississippi State.
Western Kentucky(12) over Drake(5) - I am not picking this upset. There is upset potential here but I'm sticking with Drake since they're 28-4, beat Butler late in the season, and won the MVC regular season and tournament championships.
Baylor(11) over Purdue(6) - I am not picking this upset. Purdue has lost 3 of their last 6 games. Baylor has won just 5 of their last 13 games. I'm going with the Boilermakers as they beat Wisconsin twice on the year.
Georgia(14) over Xavier(3) - I am not picking this upset, but it's a scary game for the Musketeers. Georgia shocked the SEC and won the conference tournament. So now what? Will they keep the momentum going into the NCAA tourney?
March Madness Preview - Ranking the Regions Strongest to Weakest
There's a lot of talk about the East region being the toughest. I disagree based on the recent play of the 2 thru 4 seeds in the East. I'll get to that region in a moment, but first I want to cover the South which I feel is the strongest. In the South region bracket I look at some of the 1st round matchups and the potential 2nd round and Sweet 16 matchups and it's going to be a tough path to the Final Four for whoever comes out of the South. Memphis only has one loss(but they play in C-USA). Pitt was great in the Big East tourney and has won 7 of their last 8 games. Texas has played well all year including wins over UCLA, Tennessee, and Kansas. Stanford has been ranked in or near the top 10 of the major polls for quite some time.
I think the second strongest region is the Midwest. Kansas is the headline in this region but three years ago they got upset in the first round as a number 3 seed. Two years ago they got upset in the first round as a number 4 seed. Last season the Jayhawks lost in the Elite 8 to UCLA. This year Kansas is better and has the number 1 seed. Will this be the year the Jayhawks get back to the Final Four? They have a tough road with potential matchups against UNLV, then Clemson or Vanderbilt, and then Georgetown, Wisconsin, or USC. I actually have Georgetown beating Kansas in the Elite 8 with Roy Hibbert being the difference maker.
I have the East as the third strongest region. As I mentioned above 2 thru 4 seeds Tennessee, Louisville, and Washington State have all been a little shaky heading into the Big Dance. I have Washington State bowing out in the second round to Notre Dame. I have Louisville beating Tennessee in the Sweet 16. One surprise in terms of seeding is Butler who, as a number 5 seed last year, made it to the Sweet 16 before bowing out in a relatively close game against eventual national champion Florida. This year the Bulldogs are 29-3 and ranked in the top 12 of the major polls and yet they end up as a 7 seed.
The West appears to be the weakest of the 4 regions. That means UCLA has the easiest path to the Final Four. In my mind the West's 2 thru 5 seeds are of a lesser caliber than the other three regions. Number 2 seed Duke has lost 4 of their last 9. The 3rd seed Xavier lost to St. Joseph's twice in the last 2 weeks. The 4th seed UConn Huskies have lost 3 of their last 6. The 5th seed Drake Bulldogs lost 3 of their last 6 MVC games before running the table in the MVC tourney.
March Madness Preview - 7 teams who increased their stock in their conference tournaments
Pittsburgh - Beat Cincy, Louisville, Marquette, and Georgetown in a 4 day span to win the Big East tourney.
Clemson - Beat Duke in the ACC semifinals before playing North Carolina tough for the 3rd time this year.
Georgia - They have to be on this list. The only way they could make the Big Dance was to win the SEC tourney.
Temple - Beat St. Joseph's for the 2nd time in a 2 week span to win the A10 tourney. Also has a 7 game win streak.
North Carolina - Beat Duke to win the regular season ACC title then proved again they are the best via the ACC tourney.
Kansas - Beat Texas to win the Big 12 tourney and to avenge a loss to the Longhorns earlier in the season.
UCLA - Added the Pac-10 tournament title to their regular season championship. 10 game win streak.
March Madness Preview - 7 teams who lost stock via their conference tournaments
Baylor - Lost to Colorado, the bottom seed, in the Big 12 tourney. Baylor has won just 5 of their last 13 games.
South Alabama - Lost to Middle Tennessee State for the 2nd time this year. Cost themselves a higher seed.
Purdue - Lost to Illinois, the 10 seed, in the Big Ten tourney. Purdue has lost of their last 6 games.
Indiana - Lost to Minnesota in the 1st round of the Big Ten tourney. Indiana has lost 3 of their last 4 games.
Gonzaga - Got beat by San Diego in the WCC title game. Now the Zags have to deal with Davidson(22 wins in a row).
Tennessee - Got beat by Arkansas in the SEC tourney. The Vols have struggled a bit since beating Memphis on Feb 23.
Duke - Lost to Clemson in the ACC semifinals and has now lost 4 of their last 9. Duke lives and dies with 3 pointers.
March Madness Preview - 10 teams left out who deserve a shot in the Big Dance
Arizona State - Beat Stanford, Xavier, USC, Oregon, and Arizona(twice).
VCU - Losing by 2 in the Colonial tourney negates a 15-3 regular season CAA record? Not in my book.
Virginia Tech - Fourth place in the ACC deserves an invite to the NCAA tournament. 5th place Miami Fla got in.
Syracuse - Beat Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, and St. Joseph's. 9-9 in the toughest conference.
Ohio State - Beat Purdue and Michigan State to finish the Big Ten regular season. 10-8 in the Big Ten.
Akron - Ten losses on the year but six of those were by 6 points or less. 23-10 overall record. 11-5 in the MAC.
Massachusetts - 3rd place in the A10 plus road victories at Syracuse and at Boston College. 21-10 overall.
Charlotte - Beat Clemson, Davidson, Southern Illinois, Wake Forest, Temple, St. Joseph's, and UMass. 20-13 overall.
Illinois State - MVC down a bit but 13-5 in the league is still solid. Beat Creighton and Southern Illinois twice each.
New Mexico - Overall record is 24-8. 3rd place in the MWC at 11-5. Won 8 of last 10 where they lost by 1 and by 2.
My point with this section of the article is to show that there are indeed high quality teams left out of the tournament each year. The 10 teams above are better than at least twelve of the teams who got in just by winning their conference tournament. These 10 teams are also as good as at least another 15 teams who either won their conference tourney to get in or were at-large selections. I had a longer list and had to pare it down to 10 teams. I believe the tournament should expand to 80 or 96 teams. It's time to make sure the best teams are in the tournament while still giving smaller conference teams a chance. Given the parity of today's college basketball landscape, there is no fair way to differentiate between the last dozen that get in and the last dozen that don't. More on this in another article.
March Madness Preview - 10 teams that could win it all
UCLA - March/February record is 12-1 including road victories at USC, at WSU, at Arizona, and at ASU. 31-3 overall. Beat Stanford for the Pac-10 tournament championship.
North Carolina - ACC regular season champions and ACC tournament champions. Has beaten Clemson(3 times), Duke, Davidson, and BYU. 32-2 overall record.
Texas - Has won 12 of their last 14 games including a win over Kansas and road victories against Baylor, Oklahoma, and KSU. 28-6 overall. Beat UCLA and Tennessee in non-conference play. Lost to kansas in the Big 12 tourney final.
Georgetown - Had won seven straight before losing to Pitt in the Big East tournament final. 27-5 overall. Has won at Marquette, at West Virginia, and home against Louisville. Beat UConn and Notre Dame earlier in the Big East schedule.
Kansas - The Jayhawk's three losses all came on the road in Big 12 play. The only team currently ranked in the AP or Coaches polls that Kansas beat was Texas and that came in the Big 12 tournament final. 31-3 overall record.
Memphis - Non-conference wins include Georgetown, at UConn, USC, Arizona, Oklahoma, and at Cincinnati. 33-1 overall. Lone loss was to Tennessee. Easily won the C-USA tournament.
Tennessee - Overall record is 29-4 including road wins at Memphis, Florida, Gonzaga, Xavier, and West Virginia. Got beat by Arkansas in the SEC tournament semifinals.
Pittsburgh - Has won 7 of their last 8 games including victories over Louisville, Marquette, and Georgetown to win the Big East tournament. 26-9 overall. Beat Duke and Georgetown earlier in the season as well.
Louisville - Had won 9 in a rwo before losing to Georgetown and Pitt. Victories include Georgetown, Notre Dame, at Kentucky, at Marquette, and at Pitt. 24-8 overall.
Duke - Has lost 4 of their last 9 games. 27-5 overall. Marquee wins include Wisconsin, Clemson, at Marquette, and at North Carolina. Lost to Clemson in the semifinals of the ACC tournament.
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