NCAA Bracket Help: NCAA Tournament Factors to Consider
If you're seeking NCAA bracket help consider the qualities that a successful tournament team typically possesses. National championship teams are usually athletic, have one or more NBA-bound players, have solid depth on the bench, rebound well, have guys that can post up and score, shoot the 3 ball well, and don't rely on their defense to make up for offensive ineptitude.
Don't get me wrong as defense is very important, but teams that consistently don't shoot the ball well have a difficult time going deep into the NCAA tourney bracket. Playing great defense can often make up for poor shooting and turnovers, but that doesn't work when you play elite teams who are solid on both ends of the floor. You have to be able to make plays and score to win the national championship. Teams making Elite 8 and Final Four runs typically have similar qualities to the team who wins it all.
Don't get me wrong as defense is very important, but teams that consistently don't shoot the ball well have a difficult time going deep into the NCAA tourney bracket. Playing great defense can often make up for poor shooting and turnovers, but that doesn't work when you play elite teams who are solid on both ends of the floor. You have to be able to make plays and score to win the national championship. Teams making Elite 8 and Final Four runs typically have similar qualities to the team who wins it all.
NCAA bracket help - picking upsets: What about early round games? How do you sniff out potential upsets? Look for the small conference and mid-major teams that have good 3 point shooters and decent inside presences. Once you find those teams look at who they are matched up against in their NCAA tournament bracket. Find opponents that struggle to score points and that are not strong inside the paint. A good offensive mid-major that can play solid defense is always capable of beating major teams that tend to struggle on offense.
Another kind of underdog to look for is a major conference team that gets a 10, 11, or 12 seed. Anything can happen there especially if the major conference team is matched up against a higher seeded mid-major school. Let's take a look at how many first round upsets have taken place over the last 3 NCAA tournaments:
In the 2004 NCAA bracket there were 4 first round upsets based on seedings. Two 12 seeds beat 5 seeds. Those two 12 seeds both lost in the second round. A number 10 seed beat a 7 seed and went on to make the Sweet 16 where they lost. A number 9 seed beat an 8 seed and also went on to the Sweet 16 where they lost. 8 and 9 seeds are essentially the same and can hardly be called an upset game. In fact history shows that 9 seeds have beaten 8 seeds 53% of the time.
Upsets were a little more common during the 2005 NCAA basketball tournament. Three 9 seeds beat 8 seeds(again this really isn't an upset). Then we had 10 beat 7, 11 beat 6, 12 beat 5, 13 beat 4, and 14 beat 3 exactly one time each in the March Madness bracket. Only two teams seeded higher than 8 made it to the Sweet 16 in that tournament, a number 10 seed and a number 12 seed. Neither team made the Elite 8.
The 2006 NCAA bracket was a little crazier yet. Only one 9 seed beat an 8 seed but we had 10 beat 7, 11 beat 6, and 12 beat 5 two times each. We also had a 13 seed beat a 4 seed and a 14 beat a 3. Only two of these teams made it past the 2nd round. The 13 seed(Bradley) lost in the Sweet 16 and of course George Mason(11 seed) made it all the way to the Final Four.
The 2007 NCAA tournament bracket was similar to 2004 in that there were only 5 first round upsets based on seedings. Three 9 seeds beat 8 seeds while two 11 seeds beat 6 seeds. Those two 11 seeds both lost in the second round as did all three 9 seeds. All Sweet 16 teams in 2007 were seeded 7 or higher.
General NCAA bracket help - If we throw out the 9 seeds beating the 8 seeds, there was a total of twenty first round upsets during the 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 NCAA tournaments. That's twenty teams out of 112 seeded 10 and higher. Just five of those twenty teams made it to the Sweet 16. Only one made it further(George Mason). What that tells us is that the Sweet 16 is going to be comprised almost totally of 8 seeds and higher. The Elite 8 will rarely have a team seeded higher than 8. Actually number 8 seeds always match up against number 1 seeds in the second round, so they rarely reach the Sweet 16 or beyond.
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Another kind of underdog to look for is a major conference team that gets a 10, 11, or 12 seed. Anything can happen there especially if the major conference team is matched up against a higher seeded mid-major school. Let's take a look at how many first round upsets have taken place over the last 3 NCAA tournaments:
In the 2004 NCAA bracket there were 4 first round upsets based on seedings. Two 12 seeds beat 5 seeds. Those two 12 seeds both lost in the second round. A number 10 seed beat a 7 seed and went on to make the Sweet 16 where they lost. A number 9 seed beat an 8 seed and also went on to the Sweet 16 where they lost. 8 and 9 seeds are essentially the same and can hardly be called an upset game. In fact history shows that 9 seeds have beaten 8 seeds 53% of the time.
Upsets were a little more common during the 2005 NCAA basketball tournament. Three 9 seeds beat 8 seeds(again this really isn't an upset). Then we had 10 beat 7, 11 beat 6, 12 beat 5, 13 beat 4, and 14 beat 3 exactly one time each in the March Madness bracket. Only two teams seeded higher than 8 made it to the Sweet 16 in that tournament, a number 10 seed and a number 12 seed. Neither team made the Elite 8.
The 2006 NCAA bracket was a little crazier yet. Only one 9 seed beat an 8 seed but we had 10 beat 7, 11 beat 6, and 12 beat 5 two times each. We also had a 13 seed beat a 4 seed and a 14 beat a 3. Only two of these teams made it past the 2nd round. The 13 seed(Bradley) lost in the Sweet 16 and of course George Mason(11 seed) made it all the way to the Final Four.
The 2007 NCAA tournament bracket was similar to 2004 in that there were only 5 first round upsets based on seedings. Three 9 seeds beat 8 seeds while two 11 seeds beat 6 seeds. Those two 11 seeds both lost in the second round as did all three 9 seeds. All Sweet 16 teams in 2007 were seeded 7 or higher.
General NCAA bracket help - If we throw out the 9 seeds beating the 8 seeds, there was a total of twenty first round upsets during the 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007 NCAA tournaments. That's twenty teams out of 112 seeded 10 and higher. Just five of those twenty teams made it to the Sweet 16. Only one made it further(George Mason). What that tells us is that the Sweet 16 is going to be comprised almost totally of 8 seeds and higher. The Elite 8 will rarely have a team seeded higher than 8. Actually number 8 seeds always match up against number 1 seeds in the second round, so they rarely reach the Sweet 16 or beyond.
Back to NCAA Bracket Tips
Back to College Basketball Rankings home page
Check out NCAA women's bracket help
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