NCAA Tournament Trends: Men's Tourney 1 thru 4 Seeds
Bracket results for prior seasons reveal some interesting NCAA tournament trends for 1 thru 4 seeds. It's relatively common knowledge that a number 1 seed has never been beaten in the 1st round by a number 16 seed. But how about these NCAA tournament trends and bracket facts:
- Since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only four number 2 seeds have lost in the first round of the tournament. The last time it happened was in 2001 when Hampton beat Iowa State 58 to 57. That means number 2 seeds are 88-4 in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
- Since 1985 number 3 seeds are 81-15 in the first round of the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
- Since 1985 number 4 seeds are 76-20 in the first round of the
- Since the field was expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only four number 2 seeds have lost in the first round of the tournament. The last time it happened was in 2001 when Hampton beat Iowa State 58 to 57. That means number 2 seeds are 88-4 in the first round of the NCAA tournament.
- Since 1985 number 3 seeds are 81-15 in the first round of the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
- Since 1985 number 4 seeds are 76-20 in the first round of the
NCAA basketball tournament bracket.
- As mentioned above a number 1 seed has never lost to a number 16 seed. That makes number 1 seeds 96-0 in the first round of the tourney since 1985.
- Since 1985 there has only been one tournament where none of the number 1 seeds made the Final Four. That was the 2006 NCAA tourney.
- Number 1 seeds have squared off in the national championship game only 5 times since 1985. The last time was in 2008 with Kansas beating Memphis for the title. In 2007 two number 1 seeds also squared off with Florida beating Ohio State for the championship. Note that two number 1 seeds also made it to the final in 2005 with North Carolina taking out Illinois to become champions. So while overall NCAA tournament trends show that two number 1 seeds in the title game is uncommon, the feat has been achieved in 3 of the last 4 years.
- Since 1985 number 1 seeds have won fourteen championships, number 2 seeds have won four, number 3 seeds have won three, and number 4 seeds have won one. That accounts for 22 of the 24 national championships since the field was expanded to 64 teams.
The summary below shows how far 1 thru 4 seeds have made it in the NCAA tournament since 1985:
Number 1 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 0 times in the first round
Lost 12 times in the second round
Lost 15 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 27 times in the Elite 8
Lost 20 times in the Final Four
Lost 8 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 14 times
Number 2 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 4 times in the first round
Lost 33 times in the second round
Lost 16 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 23 times in the Elite 8
Lost 10 times in the Final Four
Lost 7 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 4 times
Number 3 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 15 times in the first round
Lost 32 times in the second round
Lost 26 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 11 times in the Elite 8
Lost 4 times in the Final Four
Lost 5 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 3 times
Number 4 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 20 times in the first round
Lost 35 times in the second round
Lost 27 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 5 times in the Elite 8
Lost 7 times in the Final Four
Lost 1 time in the championship game
Won the national championship 1 time
NCAA tournament trends summary - 1 thru 4 seeds
Almost 82% of number 1 seeds have made it to at least the Elite 8. About 44% of number 1 seeds have made it to the Final Four. 84 of the 96 Final Four teams since 1985 have been 1 through 4 seeds.
When filling out your NCAA tournament bracket the first thing you can do is advance all number 1 and 2 seeds to the second round. Since 3 and 4 seeds win 82% of the time in the first round, it's a good bet to just go ahead and advance them to the second round as well. Chances are you'll end up somewhere between 16-0 and 14-2 on those games alone. Even if a 13 or 14 seed upsets a 3 or 4 seed they rarely go any farther than the second round.
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- As mentioned above a number 1 seed has never lost to a number 16 seed. That makes number 1 seeds 96-0 in the first round of the tourney since 1985.
- Since 1985 there has only been one tournament where none of the number 1 seeds made the Final Four. That was the 2006 NCAA tourney.
- Number 1 seeds have squared off in the national championship game only 5 times since 1985. The last time was in 2008 with Kansas beating Memphis for the title. In 2007 two number 1 seeds also squared off with Florida beating Ohio State for the championship. Note that two number 1 seeds also made it to the final in 2005 with North Carolina taking out Illinois to become champions. So while overall NCAA tournament trends show that two number 1 seeds in the title game is uncommon, the feat has been achieved in 3 of the last 4 years.
- Since 1985 number 1 seeds have won fourteen championships, number 2 seeds have won four, number 3 seeds have won three, and number 4 seeds have won one. That accounts for 22 of the 24 national championships since the field was expanded to 64 teams.
The summary below shows how far 1 thru 4 seeds have made it in the NCAA tournament since 1985:
Number 1 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 0 times in the first round
Lost 12 times in the second round
Lost 15 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 27 times in the Elite 8
Lost 20 times in the Final Four
Lost 8 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 14 times
Number 2 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 4 times in the first round
Lost 33 times in the second round
Lost 16 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 23 times in the Elite 8
Lost 10 times in the Final Four
Lost 7 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 4 times
Number 3 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 15 times in the first round
Lost 32 times in the second round
Lost 26 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 11 times in the Elite 8
Lost 4 times in the Final Four
Lost 5 times in the championship game
Won the national championship 3 times
Number 4 seed NCAA tournament trends:
Lost 20 times in the first round
Lost 35 times in the second round
Lost 27 times in the Sweet 16
Lost 5 times in the Elite 8
Lost 7 times in the Final Four
Lost 1 time in the championship game
Won the national championship 1 time
NCAA tournament trends summary - 1 thru 4 seeds
Almost 82% of number 1 seeds have made it to at least the Elite 8. About 44% of number 1 seeds have made it to the Final Four. 84 of the 96 Final Four teams since 1985 have been 1 through 4 seeds.
When filling out your NCAA tournament bracket the first thing you can do is advance all number 1 and 2 seeds to the second round. Since 3 and 4 seeds win 82% of the time in the first round, it's a good bet to just go ahead and advance them to the second round as well. Chances are you'll end up somewhere between 16-0 and 14-2 on those games alone. Even if a 13 or 14 seed upsets a 3 or 4 seed they rarely go any farther than the second round.
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